Vantage Holdings (002035): Bottom Opportunity Layout Awaits Prosperity
Investment thinking: waiting for the turning point.
In 19Q1, the company’s fundamental support was insufficient. At that time, it was estimated that the uplink and uplink had a certain run-up meaning; the market risk appetite brought by the general environment had decreased, and the company’s valuation has recently approached the historical bottom area again.
19H2 is ahead of schedule, and the completion of the second, third and fourth lines is expected to gradually materialize. Q2 may be the bottom of the company’s operating fundamentals.
The estimated level of relative safety + the expected improvement in operating fundamentals, it is recommended to focus on observation and layout.
The improvement of the business climate has yet to be confirmed.
According to the China Merchants Real Estate Group’s view, corresponding to the rebound of new construction in 2016, the completion of projects in 2019 is an absolute volume or an overlapping growth rate, which will bottom out; and the completion of the first half of the year will continue to be less than expected, or create a super market in the second halfExpected pick up.
According to company surveys, Vantage continued its Q1 revenue growth trend in April, and the revenue end of May has returned to positive. The 618 online promotion effect has been significant. The company’s operations may have shown signs of improvement, and Q3 is expected to be more optimistic.
The company’s strategic layout is long-term, and its internal operations continue to improve.
1) The 18H2 company is committed to channel integration, and the secondary distributors are transformed into terminal operators to improve the efficiency of the entire industry chain. Establish a retail management center to change the terminal management and control. The current overall channel inventory level is about 3 months, which is overall benign.
2) Established product development center and technology development platform, attaching great importance to technological innovation and layout of new categories.
3) Since the completion of the transfer of new and old management power in 2016, the adjustment and replacement of the company’s middle and senior staff have been basically completed. The new blood has brought vitality to the company. The rapid development of the water heater category is also the achievement of the company’s active introduction of talents from the 深圳丝袜会所 outside.
Bottom line thinking to estimate company performance, July 2019.
700 million + expected.
The company has two characteristics that show the expected anti-periodical properties: 1) The water heater category can increase ASP and market share through the enhancement of endogenous product power and brand power; 2) The cost end is higher than competing companies, which can be achieved through internalThe improvement will continue to reduce costs and increase efficiency, and increase profitability.
If only the water heater revenue + 25% (price + 10% volume + 15%) is considered, and the rest of the segment is generally the same as last year, the income end is expected to + 5% to 64 billion; if the smoke stove products achieve rapid recovery under the improvement trend of real estate completionGive the income end + 10% to 6.7 billion as the expected cap.
In 2018, the 青岛夜网 company’s net profit attributable to its parent was 11.
1%. In 2019, considering the price increase of water heaters, the price advantage of raw materials, and internal cost reduction and efficiency enhancement, it is expected to increase by 1 pct +, corresponding to the net profit attributable to the mother.
800 million (+ 14%?
+ 18%); corresponding to the current market value of about 13?
14x PE, below the 15% quantile of the company’s historical forecast level since 2015.
Maintain a highly recommended-A grade.
Risk Warning: Real Estate Completion Improves Less Than Expected, Industry Competition Pattern Deteriorates