40% film and television pressure

Perfect World (002624) 2019 performance preview: games increase by 35%?
40% film and television pressure

Affected by the inventory impairment of the film and television business, the overall overall performance will decline in 2019; if the relevant impact of inventory impairment is not considered, the net profit attributable to the mother will be 18 billion-19.

500 million, an increase of 5.

5%?
14.

3%.

It is foreseen that the net profit attributable to mothers will decrease by 9 each year in 2019.

15%?
15.

01% to 14.

5 billion?
15.

500 million.

The company impaired part of the goodwill and inventory of the film and television business.

Among them, inventories are provided for falling prices3.

500 million to 400 million; goodwill accrues for impairment 3.

500 million-3.

800 million (mainly Tianjin Tongxin Film and Television acquired in 2017, forming goodwill6.

98 ppm), but there is a performance compensation agreement, which has no significant impact on performance through non-compensation.

Gaming business net profit increased by 35%?
40%, dazzling performance, is expected to continue to grow rapidly in 2020.

The company’s gaming business is estimated to achieve net profit in 2019.

500 million-19.

2 trillion, the same increase of 35.

22% -40.

33%.

In 2019, mobile games such as “Perfect World”, “Four Seasons Songs in Cloud Dreams”, “The Legend of Condor Heroes 2”, “My Origins”, and “Xiao Xiao Ao Jiang Hu” were successively launched.Billion.
Among them, the “Perfect World” mobile game was launched in March 19, with about 800 million running water in the first month, close to 1 billion in the first 30 days, and nearly 200 million monthly running current. It is estimated that the monthly running volume of this section in 2020 is between 120 million and 200 million.2019 is estimated to be approximately 3.5 billion.

The new “My Origins” on November 19, the first month of January.

500 million to 200 million running water; The new “Xiao Xiao Ao Jiang Hu” in December was estimated to have about 400 million running water in the first month, deferred revenue recognition and revenue contribution from 2020.

At the same time, the company’s end games “DOTA2” and “CS: GO” maintained a good posture, and the e-sports business grew steadily.

The “Dream Collection: Cygnus” was just launched in January 2020, and it is expected to be launched in 2020: Mobile Games-“Fantasy New Evil Immortal”, “Relic of War”, “Continent of Gods and Demons”, etc.”Hero 2″, “Torchilight Frontiers”, “Magic Legends”, etc.

The scope of the film and television endogenous business affected by the overall environment is expected to usher in a bottoming recovery by 2020.

The company’s film and television performance in 2019 is expected to lose 300 million -3.

The profit of the film and television business is estimated to be -0 if 600 million U.S. dollars are added back to the inventory depreciation reserve.

100000000?
1 ppm, a significant increase every year (about 400 million film and television business performance in 2018).
19Q4 mainly confirmed the two dramas “Heshan” and “Crocodile and Toothpick Bird”.

20Q1 is expected to confirm TV drama projects: “Storm Eyes”, “Stewed Rock Sugar,” etc. Other reserve items in 2020 are: “The Queen of No Marriage”, “Huo Yuanjia”, “Death Book of the Xixia”, “Aspiring Flying””No Look Back”, “Half Life”, “Blue Helmets”, “New Year After Year”, “Bihai Danxin”, “Burning”, etc .; Maintain “Highly Recommended-A” investment rating.

We estimate that the company’s net profit attributable to its parent in 2019-21 will be 15 respectively.

100 million, 22.

600 million and 26.

6 ppm, a ten-year increase of -11% / 50% / 18%; corresponding P / E estimates are 40.

6 times, 27.
1x and 23.

1x, maintain investment rating of “strongly 杭州桑拿网 recommended-A”.

Risk warnings: Film and television performance is less than expected, new game launch time and flow performance are less than expected, inventory and goodwill impairment risks.

Author