Wuliangye (000858) Research Briefing: The quality of operations will be one step ahead and will maintain a growth of more than two next year
Event description We recently participated in the company’s 1218 exchange meeting core ideas 1. Successfully closed in 2019, and the target growth rate next year remains at more than two digits: As a result, the company has successfully completed “the group broke 100 billion yuan this year, and the joint-stock company exceeded 50 billion yuan” The target of which Wuliangye is expected to reach 2 overall sales.
3, the highest, continuous increase in volume and price performance; series of wine companies successfully integrated, product structure continued to optimize, replacing the impact of low value-added brands, the same caliber growth this year reached 34.
Next year, the company’s planned revenue will continue to grow by more than two digits, of which Wuliangye ‘s emissions will remain at 5% -8%. We think this increase is very healthy, and the approval price will gradually rise under the gradual tightening, which is conducive to the company’s healthy and sustainable development.
2. Marketing reform unleashes endogenous motivation and improves operating quality: Since the end of 2018, the company has begun to transform its marketing system. The “new product replacement + channel segmentation + team expansion + control disk distribution” and other strategies have been implemented in an orderly manner. The eighth generationNew products launch digital marketing, making organization and management more refined.
The core problems of the company in the past are not product requirements, the company’s inadequate control and difficult decision-making are the core reasons. The recent batch price changes, in addition to the impact of the off-peak season, are also mainly marketing problems.
In addition to reengineering marketing and organizational processes in the future, optimization of dealer structure and matching of planning volume will be top priority.
We believe that the company’s marketing reform has been on the right path. In the future, it will continue to strengthen its implementation efforts, and the company’s operating efficiency will have some room for improvement, with great development potential.
3. Overweight demand side, long-term growth space opens: Since 19 years, the company’s business focus has gradually shifted to the consumer side, the marketing system has sunk, and tasting sessions have been launched nationwide to enhance peer-to-peer communication with consumers.
Next year is the year of the company’s brand culture construction. The product end will further implement the “1 + 3” strategy to create a new low-grade Wuliangye and 80 classic Wuliangye to meet different needs. At the same time, increasing the amount of investment will focus on corporate group purchases and strengthen opinion leaders.In-depth cultivation.
It can be seen that on the basis of releasing the potential of channels through improved management, the company has begun to further increase the demand side to tap new growth points and open up long-term growth space.
4. The fluctuation of the approval price affects market sentiment and waits for 武汉夜生活网 the peak season to catalyze: After the company’s short-term suspension of goods for rectification, the current Wuliangye inventory has replaced the low level (about 8%, lower than the same period last year).Five batches of prices have formed support; next year is the first Spring Festival of eight new generations. Against the background of strong high-end demand, we expect that sales will remain stable, confidence in the conversion channel is restored, and batch prices are expected to return to the upward trend. We are optimistic about Wuliangye next year.The approval price is more than 1,000 yuan, and there is still room for long-term volume and price.
5. Profit forecast and rating: EPS is expected to be 4 in 19-21.
54 yuan, corresponding to PE29 / 24/20 times, maintaining the “strongly recommended” level.
6. Risk reminders: 1) the impact of macroeconomic growth on demand for high-end wines; 2) the price performance of new products and the effect of moving sales are less than expected; 3) food safety incidents.